Daily Forex Technical Report − RBA Cuts 100bps, Yen Consolidates

Action Insight Daily Report

RBA Cuts 100bps, Yen Consolidates

RBA has the deepest rate cut since 1991, cut by 100bps, bringing the OCR down to six year low of 4.25%. Though, Aussie is supported by some speculations that RBA's easing cycle is close to an end, if not over and pares some of yesterday's losses. High yielders also take a breath as the Japanese yen retreats mildly from yesterday's sharp gain. BoJ left overnight call rate unchanged at 0.30% in an unscheduled meeting today and announced money market operation measures to facilitate corporate financing. Nevertheless, overall sentiments remains fragile and another round of yen rally is still expected as the day goes. Dollar index remains firm at around 87 level and rebound from 84.78 is still in favor to extend to retest 88.46 high. Crude oil dives to new low of 47.58 and remains pressured on worry of global recession.

While the rate cut is larger than "consensus" expectation of 75bps, RBA statement said that monetary policy is now in an "expansionary setting". RBA also noted that "together with the spending measures announced by the government, and a large fall in the Australian dollar exchange rate, significant policy stimulus will be supporting demand over the year ahead." Some economists argue that this part of the statement suggests RBA is near to the end of the easing cycle, if not over. Considering that RBA will not meet again until Feb, it's clear that the bank is adopting a wait and see attitude for the effects of prior cumulative 300bps cut as well as various other stimulus moves on the economy. Nevertheless, note that Stevens didn't shut the door for the further easing yet and the rate outlook will very much depends on the upcoming economic data as well as development in the financial markets. Exchange rate of Aussie would probably remain driven by risk aversion/appetite the picture is cleared.

Also released from Australia earlier today, Australian retail sales surprisingly rose 0.7% mom in November, big improvement from -1.1% in September and better than market expectation of -0.2%. In terms of components, food and other retailing rose 0.4% and 7.6% respectively while others such as clothing and household goods dropped. As most of the gain was brought by 'other retailing' which is volatile in nature, we do not treat the rise as representative. In fact, given the sluggish economic growth and restrained domestic spending, we expect retail sales to be under pressure for some time.

In addition Australia reported a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of A$ 9.736B in 3Q08, better than consensus of a deficit of A$11.1B. The figure for 2Q08 was revised to deficit of A$14.043B from A$12.77B. The current account deficit has been narrowed for the second consecutive quarter and was helped by increase in export of coal and iron ore, especially to China, as well as reduced consumer spending on imported goods such as autos. The situation is expected to persist in the coming quarter. The net income deficit narrowed to A$11.07B in seasonally adjusted terms, the smallest in 3 years while goods and services trade balance recorded a surplus of A$1.43B from a deficit of A$1.26B.

Overnight, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said that the US economy has been in recession since Dec 07. The report from NBER said that "domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity" and payroll employment "reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then." Fed Bernanke said the room to lower interests from form the current 1% level is "obviously limited" even though it's still feasible. Fed will dig deeper into the toolkits instead and economists said that this could be the start of a shift to "quantitative easing" that resembles what BoJ did in 2001-2006.

Looking ahead, sharp decline in energy prices since Jul is expected to be reflected in further moderation in inflation in Europe. Swiss CPI is expected to drop from 2.6% yoy to 1.9% yoy in Nov. Eurozone PPI is expected to drop from 7.9% yoy to 7.1% yoy. UK construction PMI is expected to deteriorate further from 35.1 to 33.5 in Nov, signaling deeper contraction in the construction sector.

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Forex Brokers — Helping to Maximize Your Success:

A Forex broker competition is a broker dealing in foreign exchange, just like real estate broker who deals in real estate and properties. Simply, Forex broker competition is an advisor who advises you about the forex market. However, the Forex market is not the perfect place to play with as a novice and beginner as there are many criticalities involved along with much risk bearing capacities. Novices can very quickly get their fingers badly burnt. But inexperience is not the only reason to consider using a Forex broker to trade in the high-risk international currencies market.

So, the Forex broker competition is an advisor who advises you about the forex market and allows you to work for 24 hours a day with major currencies like EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF etc against the US dollar on the spot, i.e. according to the current prices on the forex international exchange market. But the level of profits depends only on your abilities as well as your timely decision.

Although the role of the Forex broker competition is relatively redundant as a result of technological advancement and increased awareness, we cannot completely underestimate his role. The new paradigm shift has had something of a democratizing effect on the financial markets, and in the years that have followed a plethora of banks and brokerages have extended the range of their services to a new market by packaging up their online trading systems for the retail market, enabling the more modest investor to trade from their own computer screen — even on the previously out-of-reach currency markets. This is where the real role of Forex broker competition.

There are many great Forex brokers competition, who maintains tight, competitive spreads in the four major currencies against the Dollar, and a total of 17 currency pairs including USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

Benefits of Forex Trading with ForexGen

Benefits of Forex Trading with ForexGen

Forex offers great investment opportunities for those wishing to diversify their portfolio. Forex benefits and advantages are many. Here are some of the main reasons why more and more corporate and individual investors choose to trade forex:

• No Commissions, Small Transaction Costs: This is probably one of the most attractive forex benefits. Indeed, when you trade forex, you are not charged any fees or commissions on your deals. The way it works is that brokerage firms get paid through spreads (the difference between the bid and the ask price). This allows for extremely low transaction costs. Thanks to its large number of clients and to the large volume and capital traded through the platform, ForexGen offers very competitive spreads on the main currency pairs.
• Leverage Trading: High Returns with Relatively Small Deposits. this means that even if traders deposit a small amount of money, they can actually trade with a much bigger contract value. ForexGen offers a 200 to 1 leverage. If you make a $100 margin deposit, you can actually trade $20,000 worth of currencies. With a $1,000 margin deposit, you can buy or sell $200,000 worth of currencies. However, you must keep in mind that if leverage allows for substantial profits, it also can lead to equally significant loss. One of the chief forex benefits can thus become a major liability. That's why you need to figure out your own risk management policy before you start trading.
• High Liquidity: This refers to the forex market's ability to quickly convert or liquidate deals through buying or selling and without causing a significant price movement. The high liquidity of the forex market is mainly due to the large volume of currencies traded around the world. That way, currencies are exchanged instantaneously, 24 hours a day and with minimum loss value, since the next trade is usually executed at the same price as the last one. In the forex market, there are always plenty of ready and willing buyers and sellers.
• Open 24 hours a day: The forex market is open 'round the clock, 5 days a week, from Sunday 5 pm EST to Friday afternoon 4 pm EST. This is due to the fact that there is an overlap of different time zones and that there is no physical central exchange that opens and closes at a particular time. Forex works through a global electronic network of corporations, banks and individuals. When you hear that a certain rate closed at particular price, this refers to the price at market close in London or elsewhere. However, unlike securities, currencies are still traded somewhere else in the world. The global scope of currency trading, as well as the high demand for currency, implies that there are always investors somewhere who are willing to buy or sell currencies. This also allows traders to trade on a part-time basis, meaning that they can choose to trade whenever they want.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

24hrOnline Forex Trading With ForexGen

24^hrOnline Forex Trading With ForexGen

With a volume of $3 trillion traded each day, the foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world. While Forex trading was once the exclusive domain of banks and large financial institutions, the rise of Internet technology has made it accessible to all types of investors including individuals with small investment capital. As word of its substantial and quick potential profits is spreading, online forex trading is becoming more popular each day.

Through online currency brokers such as ForexGen, traders can now buy and sell currencies in one mouse click and with no commissions or fees. Online forex trading allows you to take advantage of market fluctuations – even small – in various currency rates. At ForexGen, you get free access to topnotch tools which will help you predict market direction and place your orders.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

Lowest Spread with ForexGen

If we take no commissions or fees, then how are we compensated for our brokerage services, might you ask? The answer is: the spread. As you may have noticed, a currency pair quote comes with two displayed rates for instance, GBP/USD 2.025/2.028. Those refer respectively to the bid price (the rate at which you may short sell the pair) and the ask price (the rate at which you may buy the pair). The spread is the difference between those two rates. The tighter the spread, the more advantageous it is for you. ForexGen offers spreads as low as 1 pip on the main currency pairs. ForexGen is able to offer such tight spreads thanks to the huge capital traded by its clients each day and the excellent inter-bank conditions thus negotiated.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

Trading on Margin with ForexGen

Trading on Margin with ForexGen

The key to FOREX popularity is margin. Without margin, the FOREX would be beyond the reach of the average investor. So, what exactly is margin and how does it work? Margin accounts allow FOREX traders to control large amounts of currency with a relatively small deposit.

Establishing a margin account with a FOREX broker enables you to borrow money from the broker to control currency lots which are usually worth $100,000. The amount of borrowing power your margin account gives you is the leverage. Leverage is usually expressed as a ratio – a leverage of 100:1 means you can control assets worth 100 times your deposit.

What this means in FOREX is that with a 1% margin account you can control standard lots of $100,000 with a $1,000 deposit. Trading on margin increases both profits and losses, and the potential exists for the trader to lose more than his original deposit. With proper safeguards, however, loss can be limited, and usually brokers will terminate a transaction that extends beyond the margin deposit.

Benefits

As we mentioned above, trading on margin gives you more buying power and the potential for more profits (and losses). How does this work, exactly? A 1% margin account allows you to control a currency lot of $100,000 for $1,000. When dealing with $100,000 small changes in the price of the currency can result in large profits or losses.

FOREX currencies are traded in much smaller units than cash. The American dollar, for example, is traded in units down to 4 decimal places. Instead of $1.32 FOREX quotes are seen as $1.3256. The smallest unit in FOREX currencies is called the pip, and when you have a $100,000 each pip of your total lot is worth $10 (when trading American dollars).

If the price of American dollars changes from 1.3256 to 1.3356, that's a difference of 100 pips which represents a profit or loss of $1000. Without margin, if you had $1000 of currency, the price change from 1.3256 to 1.3356 represents a difference of $10. Significant to the tourist, perhaps, but not the investor.

So the benefit of margin is increased profit potential.

Risks

As there is increased profit potential, there is also increased loss potential. If you are not careful, your entire margin account could quickly be wiped out. If your margin account is 1% and the currency moves just one cent against you, you lose $1000.

FOREX trading, however, has several methods to limit loss. Stop loss orders automatically close your position if the value of the currency crosses a pre-determined point. Stop loss orders allow you to limit your losses to a specified amount while still allowing potential profit taking.

An often overlooked risk is the possibility that your broker may close your position if your potential losses approach the balance of your margin account. You may be riding out a down trend with the expectations of a market reversal, but unless you replenish your margin account you may find your position has been closed. If this happens, you lose all of your margin.

For example:

You sell EUR/USD at 1.2144 (sell 100,000 Euros and buy 121,440 US dollars) with the expectation that the euro will fall in price. You have a 1% margin account which means the required margin is $1,214.40. You have $1250 in your margin account, so to enter this position your margin account is left with $35.60.

You have not specified a stop loss order, and after you enter this position the euro suddenly rallies, gaining 0.0263 for a price of 1.2407. 100,000 Euros are now worth US$124,070 and your 1% margin requirements have risen to $1,240.70. Depending on the policy of your broker, your position may be automatically closed or the extra funds in your margin account may be used to make up the difference. In any case, if the euro continues to gain value and you wish to ride it out (bad idea) you will have to add more funds to your margin account or risk losing everything.

Another example:

You buy USD/CHF at 1.2623 with the expectation that the US dollar will gain against the Swiss franc. You buy a standard lot of 100,000 American dollars for 126,230 Swiss francs with a margin requirement of 1% or $1,000.

As expected, the US dollar rises to 1.2683 at which point you close your position. You sell 100,000 American dollars for 126,830 Swiss francs for a profit of 600 francs or US$473.08 (600 francs divided by the exchange rate of 1.2683).

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

Forex Trade Sizes with ForexGen

Forex Trade Sizes with ForexGen

FOREX currencies are traded in much smaller divisions than cash. Whereas the smallest division in US cash is the penny ($0.01), US currency can be traded on the FOREX in divisions of $0.0001. This smallest division is called the pip (short for Price Interest Point – sometimes just called 'points').

Since currencies are traded in large lots of (say) $100,000 - small movements in value can generate substantial profits and losses. In a lot of US$100,000 one pip is worth $10 so an increase in 40 pips (4/10 of one cent) can generate a profit or loss of $400.

Currencies are traded in lots of various sizes. The standard lot is 100,000 units of the base currency. A unit is the currency name e.g. one unit of US dollars is the dollar. So a standard lot of US currency is worth $100,000. FOREX trades can have lots of various sizes - a mini lot is 10,000 units, but the most trades are done using standard lots.

Various currencies have different sized pips. The US dollar is expressed in pips of 0.0001 while the Japanese yen is expressed in pips of 0.01. The value of a pip depends on the size of a lot and the currency pair traded. Currency pairs with USD as the quote (second) currency (e.g. CAD/USD) always have a pip value of $10 per standard lot or $1 per mini lot. A pip value calculator can be used to calculate other currencies.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

Forex Options Trading with ForexGen

A currency option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified currency during a specific time period. It can be used to hedge a FOREX transaction and are a favored method of reducing risk in companies that trade goods overseas.

There are two basic types of option: Call options and Put options. A call option gives the holder the right to buy a currency while a put option gives the holder the right to sell.

The worth of an option at expiry is equal to the value realized by the holder in exercising the option. If the holder gains nothing, the option is worth nothing. The value at any other time of the contract duration is the 'intrinsic value' – the value that can be realized if the holder exercises his option.

Intrinsic value is linked to the 'strike price' – the value specified by the option contract. A call option has intrinsic value if the spot (current) price is above the strike price. A put option has intrinsic value if the spot price is below the strike price.

If the option contract has intrinsic value it is said to be 'in the money', otherwise it is 'out of the money' or 'at the money' (at par). Options would only be exercised if they are in the money.

Options are priced according to complex formulas that take into consideration both the spot value and time value. Time value is calculated according to expected market conditions including volatility and the difference in interest rates between the two currencies. Options must be priced low enough to attract potential buyers and high enough to attract potential writers (the sellers or guarantors of the option).

Currency options are used in FOREX to minimize risk against unexpected moves in the market. If you buy an option your losses are limited to the cost of the option. Those who sell options are more vulnerable. They gain the premium but they are exposed to unlimited loss if the market moves against them.

As a hedging tool, there are many different types of options available. They are often used by companies that trade overseas to minimize the potential for loss due to fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

FOREX trades have a special type of option available known as a Digital Option. This option pays a specified amount at expiration if the criteria are met, otherwise it pays nothing.

FOREX traders who wish to use a digital option first decide which direction the market is moving. They then decide on a payoff amount if the market moves as expected within a certain time frame. With this information the cost of the option is calculated.

For example:

The price of the euro is currently trading at about 1.2400 and you expect it to rise to 1.2800 within 3 months. You decide to buy a put digital option with a payoff of $5000. The cost of the option is $800.

If at the end of the 3 months the euro is more than 1.2800 you get $5000. If the price is less, you lose $800.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

Different Types of Forex Orders with ForexGen

Different Types of Forex Orders with ForexGen

A trader has at his disposal different types of orders to make FOREX trades. A clear understanding of each type of order is necessary to be a successful FOREX trader. Market Order – is an order to buy or sell at the current market price. They can be used to enter or exit a trade.

Market orders should be used with care because in fast-moving markets there may be a difference between the price seen at the time a market order is given and the actual price of the transaction. This is due to slippage – the amount the market moves in the few seconds between giving an order and having it executed. Slippage could result in a loss or gain of several pips.

Limit Order – is an order to buy or sell at a certain limit. They can be used to buy currency below the market price or sell currency above the market price. When buying, your order is executed when the market falls to your limit order price. When selling, your order is executed when the market rises to your limit order price. There is no slippage with limit orders.

Stop Order – is an order to buy above the market or to sell below the market. They are most commonly used as stop-loss orders to limit losses if the market moves contrary to what the trader expected. A stop-loss order will sell the currency if the market falls below the point set by the trader.

One Cancels the Other (OCO) – this order is used when placing a limit order and a stop-loss order at the same time. If either order is executed the other is cancelled, allowing the trader to make a transaction without monitoring the market. If the market falls, the stop-loss order will be executed, but if the market rises to the level of the limit order, the currency will be sold at a profit.

• Example OCO Transaction:

Buy: 1 standard lot EUR/USD @ 1.3228 = $132,280
Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
Stop-Loss: 1.3203
Limit: 1.3328

This is an order to buy US dollars at 1.3328 and to sell them if they fall to 1.3203 (resulting in a loss of 25 pips or $250) or to sell them if they rise to 1.3328 (resulting in a profit of 100 pips or $1,000).

• Here's another example:

The current bid/ask price for US dollars and Canadian dollars is

USD/CDN 1.2152/57

...meaning you can buy $1 US for 1.2152 CDN or sell 1.2157 CDN for $1 US.

If you think that the US dollar (USD) is undervalued against the Canadian dollar (CDN) you would buy USD (simultaneously selling CDN) and wait for the US dollar to rise.

This is the transaction: Buy USD: 1 standard lot USD/CDN @ 1.2157 = $121,570 CDN
Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
Stop-Loss: 1.2147
Margin: $1,000 (1%)

You are buying US$100,000 and selling CDN$121,570. Your stop loss order will be executed if the dollar falls below 1.2147, in which case you will lose $100.

However, USD/CDN rises to 1.2192/87. You can now sell $1 US for 1.2192 CDN or sell 1.2187 CDN for $1 US.

Because you entered the transaction by buying US dollars (buying long), you must now sell US dollars and buy back CDN dollars to realize your profit.

You sell US$100,000 at the current USD/CDN rate of 1.2192, and receive 121,920 CDN for which you originally paid CDN$121,570. Your profit is $350 Canadian dollars or US$287.19 (350 divided by the current exchange rate of 1.2187).

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

IB Program with ForexGen

ForexGen IB programme is a great opportunity for both individuals and companies to receive commission for introducing their customers or contacts to ForexGen. In fact, any individual or organisation that has proper contacts can become a successful Introducing Broker. To give you an idea, we have provided below some examples of businesses and individuals that can establish a successful brokerage business:

• Banks
• Companies providing financial services and training
• Insurance companies
• Successful traders on FOREX, stock, futures markets
• Trading rooms
• Investment or trading clubs
• Stock brokerage or trading companies
• Money managers
• Real estate firms
• Companies with large clientele
• Attorneys, accountants and other business professionals

Some IBs prefer to concentrate mainly on the sales and marketing aspects of financial business and leave actual market trading to customer's or a third party's discretion. Others offer added value services like market advisory/analysis services and assist their customers with their trading decisions.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

On Line ForexGen Broker

On Line ForexGen Broker

Exchange vs. Over-The-Counter Options
ForexGen options can be traded either on an exchange or in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, meaning between two parties.

Types of Transactions
Manufacturing companies who buy in raw materials from abroad and export finished products undertake both the purchase and sales of foreign exchange, as they are always dependent upon the supplying companies’ country of origin and its currency for their invoicing.

Margin Trading
Margin means borrowing money from a broker to buy a stock, or commodity, or currency pair and using the investment as collateral. It is, to all intents and purposes, a performance bond in cash or another means of security deposited by a trader.

Role of the Adviser
As the adviser is the primary contact between a market maker and a client, the adviser must demonstrate an overall understanding of the foreign exchange market in order to earn and maintain the trust of clients.

Barriers
This is a standard option that automatically cancels out if spot trades through a prearranged knock-out level. This level is set below the initial spot for a call option, and above spot for a put.

Reversals
Reversals are primarily a Floor Trader strategy used to capitalize on minor price discrepancies between calls and puts. As implied by its name, reversals are the exact opposites of conversions.

When Is a System Suitable for Automation?
While the average trader can make money using any given toolkit, there are some cases that are not well-suited for complete automation.

Making Mistakes
When trading in the ForEx market it is best to come to grips with the cold hard fact that only 5% of all traders achieve their ultimate goal of being consistent with their profits. The difference between that 5% and everyone else is that they learn from their mistakes and recognize them as learning experiences, not personal failures to be ignored and swept under the rug.

Successful and Unsuccessful Traders
Unsuccessful traders don't want to learn the charts, the signals, and other intricacies of the forex market, become prideful, believing that they deserve more profit, are therefore take unwise risks.
Successful traders painstakingly build outwardly simple systems that have taken years to perfect, wait for predictable signals that are obeyed without question, want to know everything about their broker and their broker's practices.

Currency Value
The value of a currency is always given in terms of another currency. For example, the value of a US dollar in terms of British pounds is the £/$ exchange rate, and the value of the Japanese yen in terms of dollar is the $/¥ exchange rate. Understanding this procedure is particularly useful when dealing with unusual currencies.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/

Automated Trading with ForexGen

Automated Trading with ForexGen

ForexGen market (LLC) does not require its traders to work personally, “in the flesh”. There are many automated trading systems known (also called “trade robots”) providing full or partial automation of working in the market.

Dedicated systems of trade automation, usually thoroughly developed and justified for many years, provide wealth and success for many leading traders of Forex market. Many of these systems are fully automated, so their owners’ success almost completely belongs to these software applications.

Lots of automated trading systems are able to analyze the market independently, working completely on their own and constantly generating special Forex market signals, exclusively dedicated for their owners, who get this way the possibility to make more flexible and up-to-date decision on the international currency market.

The automated trade system are often blamed for their unneeded conservativeness and limited consideration in decisions possible to be generated (which is no surprise regarding their computer nature). Opponents of the automated trade often state that the international currency market is of too high liquidity, of too much “humanity” and unpredictability for a computer program to manage and deal with, in order to generate advices and prognoses with enough speed and precision. However, the practical experience shows that the accurate and disciplined following of directions and signals of an automated trading system always guaranties some kind of financial success for its owner working on Forex market, while human, emotional approach to the trading (which is an integral part of any real, physical trade) very often leads traders to failure.

For more detailed information can be found in

http://www.forexgen.com/