Showing posts with label amazing offer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label amazing offer. Show all posts

Tuesday, 2 December 2008

About Technical Analysis:


I have heard people lament how difficult it was to perform technical analysis and how they can never learn the skills. There were also many critics or fundamental believers that the stock market can never be timed and that we market technicians are wasting our time trying to beat the market using technical analysis. Technical analysis was thought to be a study of past price behaviors and critics were saying the past doesn't reflect what will happen in the future. They are both right and wrong. They are right because technical analysis is not a crystal ball where it is 100% accurate. They are wrong because technical analysis reflects the human emotions happening on the charts. Do human change over the centuries? As far as emotions are concerned, fear and greed are human nature that will never change! Humans will still do insider trading even if it is illegal due to greed. We saw how corporate governance though tightened over the decades was not fool proof to these criminals. Humans will still fear losing paper profits and they will still fear declining stock prices leading to declining capital. All these emotions can be found on the charts as they happen. Ask yourself, how many times have you seen a stock price run up before news is released? Anticipation of shareholders? Well, maybe but how about insider leaking the news? Think about it.

Every night I study in details charts and it is through all these relentless efforts that I became very familiar with technical analysis. If a lawyer wants to win a case, he will study the case carefully and also refer to past cases. We all know lawyers earn big money, but it is really this hard work of preparation that justifies their huge pay. As a trader, we cannot slack too. Hard work and efforts must be put in to learn technical analysis. Long hours of studying these charts will enable us to be very proficient in chart reading and recognize buy or sell signal in a flash as the experience build up. There is no shortcut to success in trading as far as I'm concerned.

I started trading as a loser and often times am only interested to know which the next stock to buy is. This is not why legends made their fortune in the stock market. Every single book that I read, advocate us to study past charts and get familiar with all the chart patterns or price/volume relationship. Hence why shouldn't we follow? After all, they are the ones who have done it and been there.

Learn Technical Analysis:


When it comes to explaining expectancy in the market, you must first look at financial analysis as well as technical analysis. These two types of analysis are usually combined together to gain information on future trades. The first one is related to supply and demand, while the second is related to the more specific aspects of the market.

Both of these, while related to expectancy, can only be used with some degree of certainty. This degree of certainty is in fact not very big. This is all based on probability. There is a main variable on both of these. This variable can be used in some instances as a tool on the trading market. In fact this technical analysis is a very powerful tool. A lot of people just starting out are afraid to use expectancy, but it is actually quite easy to understand. Expectancy is basically an equation; where expectancy equals the probability of a win or average win minus probability of a loss or average loss.
Technical analysis is the study of share prices. By researching the past performance of a share, we can gain an insight into how it will likely perform in the future.

To fully appreciate the power of technical analysis it is important to understand the basics. There are three key principles upon which technical analysis is based:

Everything is discounted and reflected in market prices.

Prices move in trends and trends persist.

Market action is repetitive.

Let’s examine each principle in detail.

The first and most important principle is that everything is discounted and reflected in market prices. All knowledge, regardless of type (fundamental, political, economical, psychological or other) is already reflected in market prices.

It can be time consuming studying fundamental information such as company financial statements, earnings and P/E ratios in an attempt to determine the potential for a share to rise in value. The real value of a share at any point in time is determined solely by supply and demand, as reflected in trades made at the stock exchange.

Technical analysts do not care what the underlying forces of a shift in supply and demand are; instead he or she is interested in what occurs to the price.

Wednesday, 12 November 2008

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